The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for a 3rd straight meeting despite a recent inflation pick-up and solid economy and job market.

“We look for the (Fed) to reduce the fed funds rate by 25 bps while simultaneously emphasizing that future rate cuts will be slower-going and data dependent,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and for Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment banking group.

It’s a good bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates not only at this week’s meeting but in 2025 as well. That’s because current rates are significantly contractionary, according to sophisticated statistical models that estimate what the real short-term interest rate should be in order to be neither expansionary nor contractionary.